A two-step cascade modelling between EnergyScope Pathway-BO and PyPSA-BO for energy transition planning. Part A: Impacts of demand scenarios

Jimenez Zabalaga, Pablo;Fernandez Vazquez, Carlos A.A.;Limpens, Gauthier;Cardozo, Evelyn;Jeanmart, Hervé;et.al.
(2024) The 37th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems — Location: Rhodes, Greece (30.June.2024)

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Abstract
As the transition of energy systems becomes more urgent worldwide, countries and communities are searching for pathways toward sustainable energy systems, which involves developing long-term energy plans and deciding on the key resources and technologies required to meet their future energy needs. In this context, bottom-up models are commonly used to analyze scenarios that assess the development of energy systems. Nevertheless, the technical, temporal, and spatial detail levels vary as systems and cases become more complex. Various modelling tools are currently available, each tackling issues using distinct approaches or addressing specific aspects of the system’s behavior. Thus, considering a common objective and structure, redundancies among models could be used to check consistency across models and provide an additional validation layer. Alternatively, models can be enriched by including inputs or supplementary information from other tools, considering the aspects each tool focuses on. This research is split into two parts and addresses the coupling and comparison between two models. The first part, detailed in the current article, focuses on optimizing the investment strategy path from 2021 to 2050 (EnergyScope Pathway), while the second concentrates on optimizing the electrical network and dispatch (PyPSA-Earth). Within the scope of this paper, a critical gap in the literature was addressed by comprehensively characterizing energy demand patterns and evaluating the trajectory of the Bolivian energy system across various sectors—electricity, heat, cooling, and mobility—under three scenarios (business-as-usual (BAU), conservative effort towards transition (CET), and net zero emissions (NZE)) based on historical data for 2021 and energy demand projection of consumer groups until 2050. Prior to this investigation, no detailed analysis of energy demand had been conducted for Bolivia, leaving uncertainties regarding its evolution and impact on the country’s commitment to achieving carbon neutrality. The analysis, utilizing the open-source EnergyScope Pathway model, identified electrification, synthetic fuels, efficiency improvements, and renewable integration as key to a sustainable transition. The NZE scenario reveals a 3% reduction in primary energy demand (due to energy efficiency) and a path to decarbonize the Bolivian energy system, emphasizing the importance of electrification, which grows to reach 135.23 TWh and a 48% share of energy consumption by 2050. At the same time, the total system cost (106.03 billion €2021) represents a lower value than the BAU and CET scenarios and emphasizes the necessity of dispatch & electricity network reinforcement in future endeavors (Part B).
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Jimenez Zabalaga, P., Fernandez Vazquez, C. A. A., Limpens, G., Cardozo, E., Quoilin, S., & Jeanmart, H. (2024). A two-step cascade modelling between EnergyScope Pathway-BO and PyPSA-BO for energy transition planning. Part A: Impacts of demand scenarios. Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energ, 37(37), 1327-1338. https://doi.org/10.52202/077185-0114 (Original work published 2024)