A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Pircalabelu, Eugen
(2023) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics — Vol. 72, n° 3, p. 688-702 (2023)

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We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.
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Pircalabelu, E. (2023). A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics, 72(3), 688-702. https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027 (Original work published 2023)