Exploring climate adaptation pathways through forest ecosystem modelling
(2026) Symposium “Adapt forest management to climate change” — Location: 45290 Nogent-sur-Vernisson (8.June.2026)
Files
Details
- Authors
- Abstract
- Climate change is reshaping forest dynamics through increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and more frequent extreme events. In many regions, these changes are already translating into increased disturbance frequency and rising tree mortality rates, particularly in vulnerable ecological conditions. Identifying effective adaptation pathways to strengthen forest resilience has therefore become a central challenge for forest science and management. In this presentation, I explore how forest modelling, informed by observations, can help identify and evaluate such pathways. Process-based forest models complement long-term monitoring and silvicultural trials by acting as virtual laboratories for understanding the vitality loss mechanisms and exploring alternative climate and management scenarios. They enable an initial screening of potential silvicultural options and help identify the most promising strategies for subsequent field testing. Firstly, I share the experience gained from developing and applying the HETEROFOR forest model, a spatially explicit, process-based tool designed to simulate the dynamics of heterogeneous forests (uneven-aged and mixed stands). The model integrates regeneration, individual tree growth and mortality, representing a series of climate-sensitive physiological processes, and allowing the evaluation of management options under changing climatic conditions. Secondly, I highlight results from simulation experiments. Some simulations examine the impacts of climate change on forest productivity and functioning, while others illustrate how silvicultural strategies, particularly stand diversification and transformation to uneven-aged structures, can enhance resilience and the provision of ecosystem services. The model is also applied to the design and management of mixed-species plantations, identifying optimal spatial arrangements and management interventions to sustain stable species mixtures over time. Finally, I discuss remaining challenges and identify key ecological processes that require improved representation in models to better capture forest responses to climate change and management interventions.
- Affiliations
Citations
Jonard, M. (2026, June 11). Exploring climate adaptation pathways through forest ecosystem modelling. Symposium “Adapt forest management to climate change”, 45290 Nogent-sur-Vernisson. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/277313