African urbanization trends and prospects

Bocquier, Philippe;Mukandila, Andrew Kabulu
(2011) African Population Studies — Vol. 25, n° 2, p. 337-361 (2011)

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Abstract
The paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polynomial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban population is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little variations by regions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic and social development in Africa.
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Bocquier, P., & Mukandila, A. K. (2011). African urbanization trends and prospects. African Population Studies, 25(2), 337-361. https://doi.org/10.11564/25-2-235 (Original work published 2011)