The Future of Urban Projections: Suggested Improvements on the UN Method

Bocquier, Philippe
(2015) Spatial Demography — Vol. 3, n° 2, p. 109-122 (2015)

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This paper argues that imperfect data should not hinder the search for alternative projection models and methods. Given the available data on urbanization, autoregressive projection models should be preferred to explanatory models for projections though explanatory models are more suitable for analyzing past trends. Alternatives to the UN’s projection method, Bayesian projection included, should account for the social and economic inequalities embedded in the global, national and sub-national urban systems.
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Bocquier, P. (2015). The Future of Urban Projections: Suggested Improvements on the UN Method. Spatial Demography, 3(2), 109-122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-015-0005-1 (Original work published 2015)