From modal-choice estimation to freight OD-matrix assignment: a calibrated framework for European multimodal transport models
(2026) European Transport Research Review — Vol. 18, n° 1 (2026)
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- (en) Freight modal-choice models are commonly judged by their ability to reproduce aggregate modal shares. For network assignment, however, this is not enough: the model must also reproduce where the tonnes are located in modal origin-destination (OD) matrices. This paper proposes a calibrated framework that links modal-choice estimation with freight matrix assignment. A behavioural multinomial logit (MNL) model is estimated on aggregate OD-commodity flows for road, inland waterway (IWW) transport and rail. The model uses variables expressed relative to road, commodity-group constants, mode-specific distance splines and a rail market-structure correction. Since sparse rail and inland-waterway matrices cannot be reproduced accurately by the behavioural model alone, a bounded base-year calibration layer is added to the non-road utilities. The framework is tested on three European datasets: a European NUTS2 matrix, a "Benelux+" NUTS3 matrix and a domestic German NUTS3 matrix. Performance is assessed at both the aggregate modal-share level and the OD-cell level using Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE). The detailed calibration results are interpreted as in-sample base-year reconstruction, while transferability is examined separately through repeated OD-pair holdout experiments used to distinguish base-year reconstruction from performance on unseen OD pairs. The results show that the behavioural layer provides a useful structure, but that detailed bounded calibration is required for base-year modal OD-matrix reproduction. The estimated model is then implemented in Nodus, a transport network modelling software designed for freight transport, allowing the calibrated framework to be used for assignments.
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Jourquin, B. (2026). From modal-choice estimation to freight OD-matrix assignment: a calibrated framework for European multimodal transport models. European Transport Research Review, 18(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-026-00863-9 (Original work published 2026)