Political history, migration and economic outcomes
(2026)
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- How do historical political integration and migration shocks shape subsequent economic outcomes? This thesis investigates the long-run persistence of political integration and the effects of immigration on labor markets, combining historical and modern data and state-of-the-art econometric identification strategies. The first chapter of the thesis examines the enduring legacy of ancient political integration in Europe, focusing in particular on the Roman Empire and Republic. Using a gravity framework, a spatial regression discontinuity design based on the Roman Limes, as well as new data on contemporary intra-European trade flows, the analysis shows that regions historically integrated under Roman rule exhibit significantly higher levels of economic interaction today. The findings suggest that ancient political integration continues to shape modern patterns of economic exchange, partly through its role in attenuating cultural differences. The second and third chapters turn to the labor market effects of immigration flows and diversity in destination countries. Using IPUMS data covering the United States at various subperiods from 1980 to 2023, it provides a systematic reassessment of the main empirical strategies used in the literature, reconciling two strands of the literature: shift-share instrumental spatial studies and natural experiments. It documents a weak positive influence of immigration diversity on wages driven by workers without a college education and a short-run negative effect of migration exposure. By combining insights from economic history, international and migration economics this thesis offers an integrated perspective on persistence in economics. It shows that both ancient political integration and contemporary migration shocks must be understood through dynamic spatial adjustment processes.
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de Pierpont de Burnot, C. (2026). Political history, migration and economic outcomes. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/279792