High-resolution biophysical modelling of coral connectivity across the Arabian Gulf
(2026) 16th International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) — Location: Auckland (NZ) (20.July.2026)
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- Abstract
- Coral connectivity is an important driver of reef resilience, underpinning the identification of sites best suited for conservation and restoration. Estimating connectivity, however, remains challenging due to the interplay between poorly quantified larval traits and complex ocean dynamics, particularly in topographically-challenging regions such as the Arabian Gulf, where complex shorelines and artificial structures lead to fine-scale hydrodynamics that strongly influence larval transport and settlement. To address these challenges, we apply the multi-scale, GPU-accelerated ocean model SLIM3D to simulate several years of hydrodynamics across the Arabian Gulf, resolving reef-scale circulation at ~100 m resolution. These simulations are coupled with a Lagrangian transport model to represent the dispersal of millions of virtual larvae of representative coral species, incl. Acropora sp., Dipsastraea sp., and Cyphastrea sp., while explicitly incorporating life-history traits such as competency acquisition and loss, mortality, and settlement behaviour. We use this modelling framework to quantify connectivity patterns across the entire Gulf and analyse how the interaction between reef-scale and regional-scale flow patterns shapes larval dispersal pathways and connectivity graphs. We particularly focus on Saudi Arabian reefs, where we test whether the high coral cover observed at some offshore (e.g. Karan, Jana) and coastal reefs (e.g. Safaniya) can be explained by their self-recruitment potential or by larval supply from other reefs, in Saudi water or elsewhere in the Gulf. Our results highlight the strong spatial variability in larval sources and sinks throughout the Arabian Gulf and identify reefs that significantly contribute to regional recruitment, hence providing actionable guidance for prioritizing conservation and restoration efforts.
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Citations
Mathieu, G., Scherpereel, C., Manikandan, K., Azher Hussain, S., Van Der Merwe, R., Lozano Cortés, D., & Hanert, E. (2026). High-resolution biophysical modelling of coral connectivity across the Arabian Gulf. In ICRS (ed.), Programme of the 16th International Coral Reef Symposium. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/279160