Levels and trends in fertility rates among adolescents aged 10–14 and 15–19 in 201 countries and areas from 1950 to 2023
(2026) BMJ Global Health — (2026)
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- Introduction: Reducing adolescent childbearing is essential for improving sexual and reproductive health and the social and economic well-being of adolescents. Adolescent birth rate is an indicator to monitor progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 3.7, by 2030, ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services. However, the availability and reliability of data on adolescent fertility rates is low. Methods: We produce annual estimates of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) for girls aged 10– 14 and 15–19 from 1950 to 2023 for the world, regions, and 201 countries and territories. Based on a comprehensive ASFR database, we estimate the under-20 ASFR with a Bayesian hierarchical time series model, using covariates such as total fertility rates (TFR) and female educational attainment and adjusting for biases and underreporting. We calculate the number of births to adolescents by applying rates to the female population in the respective age groups. Results: Between 1990 and 2023, global ASFR for girls aged 10–14 decreased by 76%, from 4.5 (95% uncertainty interval [4.1; 5.2]) to 1.1 [0.9; 1.4] births per 1,000, while ASFR for girls aged 15–19 fell by 48%, from 74.7 [72.5; 77.1] to 39.0 [36.8; 41.4] births per 1,000. In 2023, births to mothers aged 10–14 years were estimated at 347 [285; 454] thousand, and for those aged 15–19 years at 12.2 [11.5; 12.9] million. The number of births among adolescents aged 15–19 in Sub-Saharan Africa increased during 1990–2023 due to population growth and slower fertility declines. Conclusion: Despite significant global reduction in under-20 fertility, regional and national disparities persist. Targeted interventions addressing child marriage, educational inequities and lack of access to reproductive health services will be critical for achieving related SDG targets and ensuring gender equality and women’s empowerment.
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Citations
Chao, F., Kantorová, V., Gonnella, G., Schoumaker, B., Sánchez-Páez, D., & Gerland, P. (2026). Levels and trends in fertility rates among adolescents aged 10–14 and 15–19 in 201 countries and areas from 1950 to 2023. BMJ Global Health. Accepted/in-press. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/278467 (Original work published 2026)