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SpeybroeckYearsofLife.pdf
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Background: Information on Years of Life Lost (YLL) is instrumental in determining the mortality impact of disasters at the population level. YLL due to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, along with associated demographic disparities, has not yet been systematically studied. We therefore estimated YLL due to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal and examined disparities by age, sex, and district. Methods: Earthquake-specific deaths were sourced from the 2017 Nepal Police Report and disaggregated from broad age groups into 5-year intervals using a smooth, shape-preserving cubic interpolation approach that combines district-level population structures with age-specific mortality patterns. YLL were calculated by multiplying deaths in each age group by the remaining life expectancy from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) reference life table. A sensitivity analysis was performed using the 2019 national life table for Nepal. Reporting follows the Standardised Reporting Of Burden Of Disease (STROBOD) statement. Results: The earthquake caused an estimated 8,951 deaths across 41 districts, resulting in 473,280 YLL and 2,685 per 100,000. YLL rates were higher in females (2,998 per 100,000) than in males (2,365 per 100,000). Individuals under 20 years accounted for 55% of total YLL. Male-to-female YLL ratios ranged from 0.15 (Parsa) to 6.14 (Solukhumbu). YLL rates were 27% lower for males and 21% lower for females when based on the Nepal rather than the GBD life table. Conclusions: YLL due to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake varied considerably by age and sex, and estimates were influenced by the choice of life table. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake ranked among the top five leading causes of YLL in Nepal in 2015. Future research should integrate morbidity data, refine age-specific mortality estimates, and strengthen disaster risk reduction strategies targeting vulnerable groups.
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Tonnelier, M., Delforge, D., Bhandari, M. P., Devleesschauwer, B., Haagsma, J. A., Wyper, G. M., Castin, E., Speybroeck, N., & Charalampous, P. (2026). Years of Life Lost due to the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. BMC Public Health, 26, 10p. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-27054-4 (Original work published 2026)