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ISBA_RP_2025-07.pdf
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- Abstract
- With the emergence of telematics, huge amounts of data have become available to insurers, raising the question of their integration into motor insurance pricing. Near-claim events are dangerous events that could have triggered a claim. Typically, they correspond to harsh deceleration, acceleration, or cornering. Based on the motor third-party liability insurance portfolio of an insurance company operating in Belgium, we highlight that deceleration events are the best candidates for characterizing near-claim events. Then, we propose to integrate these events in the pricing structure in addition to a policyholder’s claim history with the help of a bivariate Poisson-Lognormal credibility model. Finally, we design an original bonus–malus scale based on both claim and near-claim events.
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Citations
Simon, P.-A., Trufin, J., & Denuit, M. (2025). Bivariate Poisson Credibility Model and Bonus–Malus Scale for Claim and Near-Claim Events. North American Actuarial Journal, 29(1), 74-93. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.2023.2293210 (Original work published 2025)