In a potentially conflictual geopolitical environment, why and how does a culture of foresight exist? Focus on Singapore in the Indo-Pacific.

Hockers, Fanny
(2025) 2025 West Point Social Science Seminar — Location: West Point, NY, USA (5.February.2025)

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In the context of an increasingly volatile and dynamic geopolitical landscape, the Indo-Pacific region faces significant challenges with far-reaching implications for long-term security. While some states, such as Singapore, have proactively engaged in anticipating regional security threats through the establishment of future-oriented ministries, foresight reports and exercises, others maintain a short-term focus in their foreign and security policies. This paper explores the factors that influence the development and institutionalization of a foresight culture in foreign and security-defense affairs within this volatile regional context. Utilizing a qualitative research methodology, this study conducts a comparative analysis of three countries: Singapore, Taiwan, and Australia. The independent variable examined is the geopolitical situation of each state. The dependent variables include the institutional, resource-based, historical, and issue-specific factors that shape a culture of foresight. Data collection was conducted through fieldwork, which involved semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in relevant political institutions, as well as a thematic analysis of national foresight reports and documents. Preliminary findings suggest that a state's economic development, historical experiences, information processing capabilities, and threat perception may play significant roles in fostering a foresight culture. This research contributes to extending the understanding and role of foresight in addressing future security challenges in international relations, to enhance preparedness for the evolving dynamics of a region.
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Hockers, F. (2025). In a potentially conflictual geopolitical environment, why and how does a culture of foresight exist? Focus on Singapore in the Indo-Pacific. 2025 West Point Social Science Seminar, West Point, NY, USA. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/271704