Brief communication: Annual variability of the atmospheric circulation at large spatial scale reconstructed from a data assimilation framework cannot explain local East Antarctic ice rises' surface mass balance records

Cavitte, Marie;Goosse, Hugues;Dalaiden, Quentin;Ghilain, Nicolas
(2025) The Cryosphere — Vol. 19, n° 12, p. 6483-6492 (2025)

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  • Cavitte, Marieorcid-logoUCLouvain
    Author
  • Goosse, Huguesorcid-logoUCLouvain
    Author
  • Dalaiden, Quentinorcid-logoUCLouvain
    Author
  • Ghilain, NicolasRoyal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
    Author
Abstract
Ice cores are influenced by local processes that alter surface mass balance (SMB) records. To evaluate whether atmospheric circulation on large spatial scales explains the differing SMB trends at eight East Antarctic ice rises, we assimilated ice core SMB records within a high-resolution downscaled atmospheric model, while incorporating radar-derived SMB constraints to quantify local observation errors. The reconstruction captures the diverse variability from SMB records but may over-fit by introducing unrealistic wind spatial heterogeneity. While local errors are quantified, they might not cover all uncertainties. Moreover, small-scale wind circulation, unresolved in the reconstruction, could significantly affect local ice core SMB signals.
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Cavitte, M., Goosse, H., Dalaiden, Q., & Ghilain, N. (2025). Brief communication: Annual variability of the atmospheric circulation at large spatial scale reconstructed from a data assimilation framework cannot explain local East Antarctic ice rises’ surface mass balance records. The Cryosphere, 19(12), 6483-6492. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-6483-2025 (Original work published 2025)