The black swan paradox: from fallen towers to devastating viruses
(2025) Social Sciences & Humanities Open — Vol. 12, n° 1, p. 102083 (2025)
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- In his 2007 bestseller The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb defined a “black swan event” by three criteria: it is rare and unpredictable, it has an extreme impact and it is retrospectively considered as wholly predictable (while it was not predicted). Events like the 2004 Pacific Tsunami and 9/11 attacks fit this model. Many have labeled the Covid-19 pandemic as a black swan, given its unexpected global devastation. However, Taleb himself rejected this categorisation, arguing that Covid-19 was “wholly predictable”. This disagreement raises questions about black swan theory's application and definitions. First, Taleb's “wholly predictable” argument ironically aligns with the third criterion, “retrospective bias”, which calls into question the usefulness of this criterion. Secondly, identifying “rare and unpredictable” events demands objective criteria, as seen when comparing 9/11 to Covid-19. Thirdly, confusion persists about whether the “event” refers to the viral outbreak or its global consequences. Finally, debates about expertise and authority in defining black swans suggest the world may better reflect shades of “grey swans” rather than binary black or white options. We argue that this might perhaps be more a matter of subjectivity than objective evidence. This perspective invites a shift from categorical judgments to a psychologically informed continuum of perceived unpredictability and impact.
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Vermeulen, N. (2025). The black swan paradox: from fallen towers to devastating viruses. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 12(1), 102083. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2025.102083 (Original work published 2025)