Modeling Streamflow Response to Climate Scenarios in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchment: The Medjerda in Northern Tunisia
(2025) Earth — Vol. 6, n° 3, p. 68 (2025)
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- Authors
Gader, Khouloud 
Gara, Ahlem Khlifi, Slaheddine
- Abstract
- This study aimed to evaluate the performance and robustness of the GR2m “Génie Rural à 2 paramètres au pas du temps Mensuel” rainfall–runoff model for simulating streamflow under past and future hydrometeorological shifts in the Medjerda, a data-scarce Mediterranean catchment in northern Tunisia characterized by limited hydrometeorological records and high climate variability. The evaluation was conducted across three subcatchments characterized by contrasting climatic conditions and representing the hydrometeorological pattern of the Medjerda catchment. To assess the model’s robustness, a calibration–validation process was applied. This method alternated between dry and wet periods and evaluated model performance through various criteria. Subsequently, GR2m was adopted to simulate projected discharge, using projections from the “Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5” (MIROC5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Standardized climate indices (SCIs) were employed to assess climate change impacts. The results demonstrate that GR2m performs well in simulating streamflow across different climatic conditions within the Medjerda catchment and maintains satisfactory performance when calibrated over a non-stationary climate period. The findings indicate a continuous decline in projected runoff and suggest a significant increase in extreme drought events.
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Citations
Gader, K., Gara, A., Khlifi, S., & Vanclooster, M. (2025). Modeling Streamflow Response to Climate Scenarios in Data-Scarce Mediterranean Catchment: The Medjerda in Northern Tunisia. Earth, 6(3), 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030068 (Original work published 2025)