Différenciation spatiale du potentiel de transfert modal vers le vélo : méthode d’analyse prospective sur base de facteurs territoriaux et comportementaux
(2025)
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- In the current context of climate emergency, urban congestion and lack of physical activity, promoting the use of bicycles to replace part of car journeys is becoming an imperative recognized at several political levels. The advantages of cycling are well documented: it requires little space, is silent, has a low environmental impact and encourages moderate physical activity. In socio-economic terms, investing in bicycles offers a return estimated at almost three times the value of the investment made. In Wallonia, the objective of multiplying bicycle use fivefold by 2030 calls for an assessment of the feasibility of this ambition, as well as a reflection on the actions and territories to prioritize in order to initiate a genuine modal shift. This thesis proposes a prospective analysis grid for cycling potential, structured around four key components: accessibility, home range, motility and perception. This methodology, based on a multifactorial approach to cyclability, differs from a literature that often focuses on infrastructure and spatial planning alone. Spatially explicit modeling methods have enabled us to apply this grid in detail. It has been validated on the basis of a mobility survey of 1,600 university employees, and surveys carried out at over 2,600 companies in Wallonia. The route choice behavior of cyclists was reproduced by parameterizing geographic information system network analysis algorithms, based on interviews with some fifty daily cyclists. Two scales of prospective analysis were mobilized: that of the former commune and that of the company. A better understanding of mobility choices is a major challenge, and this thesis provides an innovative perspective by combining social and territorial factors in a spatially explicit prospective analysis. This approach enables territorial targeting and prioritization of interventions to achieve modal shift objectives, broken down to the communal scale. The approach can be applied to a variety of spatial scales, making it easier to compare different areas and monitor changes in cycling potential. It also identifies the levers for action to boost bicycle use and assesses the realization of this potential over time.
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Stinglhamber, B. (2025). Différenciation spatiale du potentiel de transfert modal vers le vélo : méthode d’analyse prospective sur base de facteurs territoriaux et comportementaux. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/247559