100-kyr ice age cycles as a timescale matching problem

Mitsui, Takahito;Ditlevsen, Peter;Boers, Niklas;Crucifix, Michel
(2025) Earth System Dynamics — (2025)

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Authors
  • Mitsui, Takahito
    Author
  • Ditlevsen, Peter
    Author
  • Boers, Niklas
    Author
  • Crucifix, Michelorcid-logoUCLouvain
    Author
Abstract
The dominant periodicity of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles is roughly 100~kyr, rather than other major astronomical periods such as 19, 23, 41, and 400~kyr. Various models explain this fact through distinct dynamical mechanisms, including synchronization of self-sustained oscillations and resonance in mono- or multi-stable systems. However, the diversity of proposed models and dynamical mechanisms may obscure the essential factor behind the emergence of the 100-kyr periodicity. We propose the hypothesis that the ice-sheet climate system responds to astronomical forcing at the 100-kyr periodicity because the intrinsic timescale of the system is closer to 100 kyr than to other major astronomical periods. We support this idea with analyses and sensitivity studies of several simple ice age models with contrasting mechanisms.
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Mitsui, T., Ditlevsen, P., Boers, N., & Crucifix, M. (2025). 100-kyr ice age cycles as a timescale matching problem. Earth System Dynamics. Submitted. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/245786 (Original work published 2025)