Human migration : labor market, public perception and future prospects
(2023)
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2023-09-11_Thesis_Preprint_Scheewel_Hendrik.pdf
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- Abstract
- This dissertation addresses different facets of international migration. Chapter 1 develops a general equilibrium model to quantify the impact of labor migration on economic welfare and inequality in host societies. The design of the model allows for a ceteris paribus analysis of various labor market specifications commonly used in the literature. They range from a perfect competition framework – assuming full employment and participation – to more complex labor market mechanisms in which employment and participation result endogenously. We examine how much the labor market specification affects the model's results. Overall, we find that the modeled labor market design has little impact on welfare and inequality effects. Chapter 2 addresses the question if official police reporting on crime influences migration skepticism. Specifically, we want to know whether the (non-)disclosure of suspects' nationalities in police press releases affects public discourses in social media. For this purpose, we collect over 1.5 million press releases from 220 police units in Germany and trace their diffusion path on Twitter. Using an instrumental variable and an event study design, we attempt to quantify the causal effect of nationality disclosure on the reach and intensity of debates. Our results suggest that nationality disclosure increases the reach of police press releases, leads to more user engagement, and results in more hateful posts. Chapter 3 attempts to forecast the impact of climate change on global migration in the 21st century. To this end, we develop a world economy model covering the inter- and intranational mobility of working-age people. The model simulates different climate projections with varying degrees of temperature and sea level changes. Our results suggest that, climate change will mainly trigger local or intrastate mobility. Climate-induced migration from low-income to high-income countries is likely to exhibit brain drain patterns.
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Citations
Scheewel, H. (2023). Human migration : labor market, public perception and future prospects. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/214500