Entity-based landscape modelling to assess the impact of different incentives mechanisms on the argan forest dynamics
(2014) 8th European Conference on Ecological Modelling — Location: Marrakech, Morocco (27.October.2014)
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- Abstract
- Argan forest has long been central to the livelihoods of local populations in a rural area with precarious conditions. The current context witnesses an increase of illegal occupation of forested areas by users due to the weakness of traditional common control systems and to the boom of the argan oil price. The scope of this work is to anticipate the current trend in terms of land possession by the users and its impact on forest stand degradation. It tries to establish a decision support system based on dynamic spatial modelling. The model simulates, for the next 30 years, the expected change of land possession by locals, as well as forest stand degradation levels, according to three private/public partnership scenarios based on land tenure policy and economic incentives. The methodological approach combined a Markov chain analysis with a survey on stakeholder’s preferences for land possession. Firstly, potential transition quantities of parcels were computed using the Markov chain analysis. Secondly, a possession suitability map was derived using multi-criteria evaluation procedure (AHP) from biophysical and socio-economic data. Finally, for supporting socio-economic diversity and non-mechanistic human behavior, the approach takes into account uncertainties in simulation based on probabilistic analysis. The modelling approach was found relevant as a decision making support system and highlighted promising forest management scenarios. The three simulated scenarios provided contrasted results showing significant differences in the forest stand conservation level. This projective capacity of the elaborated system provides three kind of answers: • order of magnitude of the on-going process and the possible alternative future landscape scenarios (how much); • anticipating possible land competition induced by new policies (feedback) and • pinpointing the priority areas, either with high potential for land conservation or degradation hot-spots(where).
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El Wahidi, F., Radoux, J., Defourny, P., & Ponette, Q. (2014). Entity-based landscape modelling to assess the impact of different incentives mechanisms on the argan forest dynamics. 8th European Conference on Ecological Modelling, Marrakech, Morocco. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/194486