Climate models and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment
(2016) Hydrological Sciences Journal — Vol. 61, n° 5-8, p. 1415-1429 (2016)
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Sellami_2015_HSJ_Climatemodels.pdf
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Sellami_2016_HSJ_Climatemodels.pdf
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Details
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- Abstract
- Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the SWAT model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the GLUE method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in 2050s. For both hydrologic indicators uncertainty magnitude increased as moving from dry to wet period. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate models uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet period, whereas in dry period hydrologic parametric uncertainty became more important.
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Citations
Sellami, H., Benabdallah, S., La Jeunesse, I., & Vanclooster, M. (2016). Climate models and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(5-8), 1415-1429. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1040801 (Original work published 2016)