OLD-TAVR score to predict 2-year mortality in patients aged 75 years and more undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement
(2023) European Geriatric Medicine — Vol. 14, n° 3, p. 493-502 (2023)
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- (en) PURPOSE: Decision-making on transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in patients aged 75 years and older is complex. It could be facilitated by the identification of predictors of long-term mortality. This study aimed to identify predictors of 2-year mortality to develop a 2-year mortality risk score. METHODS: Cohort study of consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 years who underwent TAVR after a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) at our university hospital between 2012 and 2019. Predictors of 2-year mortality were determined using multivariable Cox regression. A point-based predictive model was developed based on risk factors and subsequently internally validated by fivefold cross-validation. RESULTS: The 345 patients (median age 87 years, 54% women) were fit/vulnerable (32%), mildly frail (37%), or moderately/severely frail (31%). The overall 2-year mortality rate was 26%, predicted by atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dL, age ≥ 87 years, BMI ≤ 24, eGFR ≤ 50 ml/min, and moderate/severe frailty. The risk score (range 0-12), named OLD-TAVR score, for 2-year mortality showed good discriminative power (AUC 0.70) and remained consistent after fivefold cross-validation (cvAUC 0.69). A risk score ≥ 8 (prevalence 20%) predicted a 45% (95%CI: 34-58%) two-year mortality, with high specificity (86%) and good positive predictive power (+ LR 2.43). CONCLUSION: A 2-year mortality risk score (OLD-TAVR score) for very old patients undergoing TAVR was developed based on six bio-clinical items. A score ≥ 8 identified patients in whom 2-year mortality was very high and thereby the TAVR futile. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER AND DATE OF REGISTRATION: Study protocol B403, 26/09/2022, retrospectively registered.
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de Terwangne, C., Maes, F., Gilard, I., Kefer, J., Cornette, P., & Boland, B. (2023). OLD-TAVR score to predict 2-year mortality in patients aged 75 years and more undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement. European Geriatric Medicine, 14(3), 493-502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41999-023-00794-x (Original work published 2023)