Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations

Simmons, Peter;Weiserbs, Daniel
(1990) , 19 pages

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  • Simmons, PeterUniversity of York
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  • Weiserbs, DanielUCLouvain
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Abstract
This paper attempts to examine the characteristics of the quarterly EEC consumer anticipations survey for inflation in the U.K. Using a variant of Pesarans approach, we investigate whether the survey data satisfies certain reasonable postulates mainly arising from the assumption of unbiasedness. We also show that it contains some relevant information not in past rates and therefore that it permits to improve and index of aggregate expected inflation obtained by extrapolative time series techniques. With a probabilistic model, we identify such information largely with interest rate changes and with respondents perception of past inflation.
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Simmons, P., & Weiserbs, D. (1990). Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations (Working Papers Institut des sciences économiques 9011). https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/281076