Currency Crises In Emerging Countries: The Commodity Factor

Bodart, Vincent;Jean-François Carpantier
(2021) , 38 pages

Files

2021003.pdf
  • Open Access
  • Adobe PDF
  • 1.02 MB
Download

Details

Authors
  • Bodart, VincentUCLouvain
    Author
  • Jean-François Carpantiercorresponding author IRES
    Author
Abstract
In this paper, we explore whether falls in commodity prices can explain the simultaneous occurence of currency crises in emerging and developing countries. For our empirical analysis, we use a panel of 104 emerging and developing countries, covering the period 1970-2018. Using event studies, we find that currency crises in commodity dependent countries are preceded by commodity price growth 2 to 4 percentage points below normal. In addition, using Poisson regression analysis, we find that a 10% decrease in global commodity price indices leads to a rise of about 7% in the number of currency crises hitting commodity exporting countries.
Affiliations

Citations

  • APA
  • Chicago
  • FWB

Bodart, V., & Jean-François Carpantier. (2021). Currency Crises In Emerging Countries: The Commodity Factor (LIDAM Discussion Paper IRES/2021/03). https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/118537