Aviation and climate change in Europe : from regional climate modelling to policy-options
(2011)
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- Authors
- Supervisors
- van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal
- Abstract
- (en) Condensation trails (contrails) are one of the most visible anthropogenic effects on the climate system. They are formed by high-flying airliners and can evolve into contrail cirrus under specific conditions. The present thesis is focusing on these anthropogenic clouds and we propose a completion of the contrail formation theory. For this purpose a thermodynamic engine model has been developed to validate this theory in the case of 109 real engines. Also an analysis is performed showing the validity of the approximations used for modern day engines, but revealing that the theory might need to be adapted for future engines with very high efficiencies and lower cruising speeds. In order to analyze the impact of contrail-cirrus in Europe a parameterization to be used in regional climate models has been developed. Regional models feature a more detailed cloud microphysics and a higher resolution than global models and are deemed thus more appropriate for this study. This parameterization has been applied to the Climate version of the Lokal Modell (CLM). An increase in high-level cloudiness of 2.8 % over the whole of Europe for the period 2000-2009 was simulated, with a maximum of over 6 % in Central Europe where air-traffic is highest. In this region the total additional cirrus cloud coverage from spreading contrails is simulated to be six times higher than the coverage of linear contrails. Limiting the production of these artificial clouds should be addressed by a climate policy. The Kyoto mechanisms use carbon dioxide as common measure for different gases. In this framework the present thesis shows that the total effect of aviation is 1.8 (very likely 1.0-2.9) times higher than the effect of CO2 emissions by the sector. This figure is however shown to be strongly dependent on the chosen way of comparison. An idea on how to include the mitigation of contrail-cirrus in a climate-policy, takinginto account the associated scientific uncertainty rounds off the dissertation.
- Affiliations
Citations
Ferrone, A. (2011). Aviation and climate change in Europe : from regional climate modelling to policy-options. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/152855