Towards a sustainable Bolivian energy system in 2050: The pathway for decarbonization under high renewable potential

Jimenez Zabalaga, Pablo;Limpens, Gauthier;Meyer, Sébastien;Thiran, Paolo;Jeanmart, Hervé;et.al.
(2025) Energy — Vol. 337, p. 138335 (2025)

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  • Jimenez Zabalaga, Pabloorcid-logoInstitute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium, Universidad Mayor de San Simón, Centro Universitario de Investigaciones en Energías, Cochabamba, Bolivia
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  • Limpens, GauthierInstitute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium
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  • Meyer, Sébastienorcid-logoInstitute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium
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  • Thiran, PaoloInstitute of Mechanics, Materials and Civil Engineering, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, 1348, Belgium
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  • Jeanmart, HervéUCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Abstract
The energy transition of Bolivia presents unique challenges due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and a lack of a comprehensive, long-term strategy. This study develops a pathway to decarbonize Bolivia’s energy system by 2050, leveraging its significant renewable energy potential. Using the open-source EnergyScope Pathway model, this paper explores three scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), National Energy Policies (NEP), and Net Zero Emissions (NZE). The results highlight the potential for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, primarily through the electrification of end-uses, the use of modern technologies, and the integration of renewable energy such as solar, wind, geothermal, and sustainable fuels. The NEP scenario aligns with governmental policy goals but leaves significant residual emissions in the transport and industrial sectors. In contrast, the NZE scenario reveals a pathway for the full decarbonization of the Bolivian energy system, driven primarily by electrification, which increases from 10.88 TWh (12% of final energy consumption) in 2021 to 94.78 TWh (70% of final energy consumption) by 2050. Additionally, this scenario achieves the lowest discounted total system cost over the 2021–2050 period (52.24 billion €2021), surpassing both the BAU and NEP scenarios.
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Jimenez Zabalaga, P., Limpens, G., Meyer, S., Thiran, P., Villarroel-Schneider, J., Cardozo, E., & Jeanmart, H. (2025). Towards a sustainable Bolivian energy system in 2050: The pathway for decarbonization under high renewable potential. Energy, 337, 138335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2025.138335 (Original work published 2025)