Tree communities face rising soil water deficits exposure under projected climate change in northern temperate forests
(2026) Ecosphere — Vol. 17, n° 5, p. e70607 (2026)
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Senecal_et_al_2026_Tree_communities_face_rising_soil_water_deficits_exposure_CC.pdf
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- Soil water deficits in temperate forests are projected to become more frequent, more severe, and longer in duration. This study aims to quantify the current (1981-2010) and projected (2041-2070) exposure of 17 tree communities to soil water deficit (severity and duration) in southwestern Quebec, Canada, using the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) model. We classified these communities into clusters based on their current exposure to soil water deficit and examined interactions with species sensitivity to drought. Our results show that all tree communities will experience significant increases in both the severity (−0.11 to −0.21 MPa) and duration (4-8 days per year) of soil water deficits by 2041-2070. Despite these absolute increases, we expect the relative ranking of tree communities on the exposure scale to remain unchanged. Quercus rubra communities will continue to be the most exposed community type and face the highest soil water deficit. Populus tremuloides and Larix laricina communities will remain the least exposed; however, they are projected to face soil water deficits similar to those currently experienced by red oak communities. Forest tree communities often consist of species with diverse drought response strategies, as observed by trait values related to drought avoidance and drought tolerance. This study shows the importance of conducting localized assessments to identify tree species that are the most vulnerable, based on exposure and sensitivity, at a scale that can guide forest management strategies and silvicultural practices. The projected increase in exposure to soil water deficit could lead to shifts in community composition and species dominance, particularly in communities with species that have marked differences in drought sensitivity (e.g., where dominant species have high sensitivity and coexist with less sensitive tree species). K E Y W O R D S climate change, drought exposure, drought sensitivity, drought vulnerability, land surface model, soil water deficit, temperate forest, tree communities
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Senecal, J.-F., Maheu, A., Boisvert-Marsh, L., Dendoncker, M., Doyon, F., Cholet, C., & Aubin, I. (2026). Tree communities face rising soil water deficits exposure under projected climate change in northern temperate forests. Ecosphere, 17(5), e70607. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70607 (Original work published 2026)