Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

Sinatra, Robert;Wang, Dashun;Deville, Pierre;Song, Chaoming;Barabasi, Albert-László
(2016) Science — Vol. 354, n° 6312, p. aaf5239-aaf5239 (2016)

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  • Sinatra, RobertCenter for Complex Network Research and Physics Department, Northeastern University, Boston
    Author
  • Wang, DashunKellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston
    Author
  • Deville, PierreUCLouvain
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  • Song, ChaomingDepartment of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables
    Author
  • Barabasi, Albert-LászlóCenter for Cancer Systems Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston
    Author
Abstract
Despite the frequent use of numerous quantitative indicators to gauge the professional impact of a scientist, little is known about how scientific impact emerges and evolves in time. Here, we quantify the changes in impact and productivity throughout a career in science, finding that impact, as measured by influential publications, is distributed randomly within a scientist's sequence of publications. This random-impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, individual ability, and luck and unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success.The model assigns a unique individual parameter Q to each scientist, which is stable during a career, and it accurately predicts the evolution of a scientist's impact, from the h-index to cumulative citations, and independent recognitions, such as prizes.
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Sinatra, R., Wang, D., Deville, P., Song, C., & Barabasi, A.-L. (2016). Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact. Science, 354(6312), aaf5239-aaf5239. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaf5239 (Original work published 2016)