Projection models for health expenses

Christiansen, Marcus;Denuit, Michel;Lucas, Nathalie;Schmidt, Jan-Philipp
(2018) Annals of Actuarial Science — Vol. 12, n° 1, p. 185-203 (2018)

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Authors
  • Christiansen, MarcusUniversity of Oldenburg, Germany
    Author
  • Denuit, MichelUCLouvain
    Author
  • Lucas, NathalieUCLouvain
    Author
  • Schmidt, Jan-PhilippUniversity of Applied Sciences, Köln, Germany
    Author
Abstract
This note proposes a practical way for modelling and projecting health insurance expenditures over short time horizons, based on observed historical data. The present study is motivated by a similar age structure generally observed for health insurance claim frequencies and yearly aggregate losses on the one hand and mortality on the other hand. As an application, the approach is illustrated for German historical inpatient costs provided by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. In particular, similarities and differences to mortality modelling are addressed.
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Christiansen, M., Denuit, M., Lucas, N., & Schmidt, J.-P. (2018). Projection models for health expenses. Annals of Actuarial Science, 12(1), 185-203. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1748499517000240 (Original work published 2018)