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With the rise of global warming, the intensity of compound events involving storm surges, tides, and river discharge is expected to increase, amplifying coastal damage and flooding, especially in estuarine regions. The Scheldt river-estuary and the North Sea are densely populated areas with significant economic interests, including shipping, fisheries, and tourism. Given the economic importance of this region, it is crucial to understand the interactions within the river-estuary-ocean continuum during extreme events. However, this is a challenging task due to the complexity arising from the interaction between river and seawater masses, which operate on diXerent temporal and spatial scales. Detailed modeling is essential to capture these multiple behaviors and dynamics. This knowledge is vital for developing eXective strategies to protect the economic assets and communities in the region. This study assesses the impact of small-scale changes in the Scheldt river-estuary and atmospheric conditions on the dynamics of storm surges in the Northwestern Continental Shelf and Belgian Bight of the North Sea during extreme weather events. We developed an unstructured-mesh multiscale coastal ocean model to simulate storm surge events, successfully replicating observed water elevations and tidal components. By incorporating atmospheric forcings at various spatial resolutions and temporal resolutions, from 2 km in a high-resolution regional model to 30 km in a global model and from hourly to 6- hourly, we evaluate the sensitivity of storm surge simulations to these variations. Additionally, we provide insights into the threats posed by North Sea storm surges infiltrating the Scheldt, which could have severe implications for the region’s economic activities. Our findings underscore the critical importance of precise and comprehensive atmospheric forcing data for enhancing model accuracy in river-estuary continuum. Improving these data is pivotal for robust coastal protection strategies and informed decision-making in navigation, environmental hazard response, and community resilience, safeguarding the vital economic interests of the Scheldt river- estuary region.
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Randresihaja, N. R., Hanert, E., & et al. (2024). Multiscale modeling of the Scheldt-North Sea continuum and atmospheric resolution’s impact on Storm Surges. Ocean Predict Symposium (OP′24), Paris, France. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/273754