Managing agricultural fields: from observation to prediction
(2020) Second International Crop Modelling Symposium (iCROPM2020) — Location: Montpellier, France (3.February.2020)
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- Abstract
- Climate change and especially hydro-meteorological extremes, such as droughts, are affecting the land surface of the Earth and socioeconomic well-being. Current analyses and projections indicate that the frequency of extremes will increase in the next decades, and that drought events like the years 2003, 2015 and 2018 in Europe will occur more regularly and might be more disruptive as terrestrial ecosystems will have no time to recover. Heat waves in combination with longer drought periods caused a loss in agricultural productivity but also impacted the availability of water resources (e.g. low water levels in rivers) and led to a decrease of the storage capacity of grass- and agricultural lands for carbon storage (e.g., Ciais et al., 2005). In addition, we observed a worldwide increase in risk of forest fires and pest outbreaks. At present, we face the challenge of quantifying and predicting the resilience and adaptiveness of our terrestrial ecosystems, both natural and managed, in view of the expected increase in extreme events. In Central Europe, the 2018 extreme drought affected agricultural production and forests leading to damages on the order of billions of Euro. Similar losses occurred during the drought 2003.The consequences of these damages motivated the EU to upgrade its civil defense mechanism by launching a risk data hub to enhance EU resilience.
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Citations
Vereecken, H., Schnepf, A., Hendricks Franssen, H.-J., Vanderborght, J., Kollet, S., Montzka, C., Jonard, F., Weihermüller, L., Herbst, M., & Brüggemann, N. (2020). Managing agricultural fields: from observation to prediction. Second International Crop Modelling Symposium (iCROPM2020), Montpellier, France. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/119922