Calibration of Operating Reserve Demand Curves using Monte Carlo Simulations

Cartuyvels, Jacques Charles;Papavasiliou, Anthony
(2022) 2022 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting — Location: Denver, Colorado, USA (17.July.2022)

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  • Cartuyvels, Jacques CharlesUCLouvain
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  • Papavasiliou, Anthonyorcid-logoUCLouvain
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Abstract
Scarcity pricing has been proposed to enhance investment in flexible assets through the use of an adder on real-time energy and the application of that adder on real-time reserve. We implement a Monte-Carlo simulator for obtaining statistically confident estimates of scarcity pricing adders which is motivated from the implementation of this mechanism in Belgium. The analysis is based on a multi-level, multi-horizon simulation of day-ahead and real-time operations in the Belgian market. The methodology relies on k-means clustering for selecting a set of representative day-ahead forecasts, followed by the generation of synthetic real-time load scenarios for simulating real-time operations.
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Cartuyvels, J. C., & Papavasiliou, A. (2022). Calibration of Operating Reserve Demand Curves using Monte Carlo Simulations. 2022 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Denver, Colorado, USA. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/273528