Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

Maystadt, Jean-François;Calderone, Margherita;You, Liangzhi
(2015) Journal of Economic Geography — Vol. 15, n° 3, p. 649-671 (2015)

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Authors
  • Maystadt, Jean-FrançoisUCLouvain
    Author
  • Calderone, MargheritaWorld Bank
    Author
  • You, LiangzhiChinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    Author
Abstract
Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.
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Maystadt, J.-F., Calderone, M., & You, L. (2015). Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan. Journal of Economic Geography, 15(3), 649-671. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu033 (Original work published 2015)