Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents
(2021) Nature Communications — Vol. 12, n° 1, p. 13 p. (2021)
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- Authors
Caldwell, Jamie M. 
LaBeaud, A. Desiree Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M. Mordecai, Erin A. - et. al.
- Abstract
- Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88% for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.
- Affiliations
Citations
Caldwell, J. M., LaBeaud, A. D., Lambin, E., Stewart-Ibarra, A. M., Mordecai, E. A., & et al. (2021). Climate predicts geographic and temporal variation in mosquito-borne disease dynamics on two continents. Nature Communications, 12(1), 13 p. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21496-7 (Original work published 2021)