PREVISIONS EN TEMPS REEL DES DEBITS AVEC HYDROMAX : 24 ANNEES D'EXPERIENCE
(2018) De la prévision des crues à la gestion de crise(SHF) — Location: Avignon (14.November.2018)
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- Authors
Bastin, Georges 
- Abstract
- (fr) Hydromax is the river flow forecasting application for the early warning of extreme hydrological events (floods as well as low waters) in the Meuse river basin and its tributaries. Hydromax provides in real-time short-term predictions of river flows based on past rainfall and river flow measurements, and long-term river flow forecasting based on weather forecasts. It has been successfully operational for twenty four years. The purpose of this communication is to present a general description of the models used in Hydromax and to give an overview of the operational results. The Hydromax forecasting model structure involves three submodels: a conceptual reservoir submodel, a statistical ARX prediction submodel and a long-term forecasting submodel. In this paper, the Hydromax operation is mainly discussed through experimental data from the Meuse River at Amay station. In particular, we address the Hydromax accuracy for short term (8 hours ahead) and long term (48 hours ahead) forecasts; the computation of confidence intervals for the prediction performance; and the additional on-line information to the forecaster on-duty which is needed for reliable forecasts.
- Affiliations
Citations
Moens, L., Bastin, G., Dierickx, P., & Thunus, M. (2018). PREVISIONS EN TEMPS REEL DES DEBITS AVEC HYDROMAX : 24 ANNEES D’EXPERIENCE. De la prévision à la gestion du risque. Published. De la prévision des crues à la gestion de crise(SHF), Avignon. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/224936