A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Pircalabelu, Eugen
(2021) , 12 pages

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Abstract
We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modeling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modeling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number.
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Pircalabelu, E. (2021). A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks (LIDAM Discussion Paper ISBA 2021/30). https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/114298