Actuarial models for health and long-term care insurance
(2021)
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- Authors
- Supervisors
- Denuit, Michel
- Abstract
- The dissertation addresses the topics of hospitalization insurance and long-term care insurance, with a special focus on old people. As these covers are lifelong in Belgian law, forthcoming challenges, together with inflation, are notably related to the uncertainty around population aging and the increasing life expectancy. An adequate management of longevity, morbidity and inflation risks requires insurance companies to model and measure them. Until recent years, both mortality and morbidity have been traditionally modeled in a deterministic framework. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and disentangle health insurance related risks and their interactions and propose risk management strategies. Stochastic models are introduced to better capture the health expenditures evolution and their frequency and severity components. We introduce longevity dynamics in the models, allowing to link morbidity to mortality projections. We show that longevity and medical inflation effects can be disentangled with the help of an appropriate frequency-severity decomposition. In the last part, a “life-care tontine” design is proposed and highlights the interest of pooling mortality and morbidity risks, exploiting the correlation structure of the risks.
- Affiliations
Citations
Lucas, N. (2021). Actuarial models for health and long-term care insurance. https://hdl.handle.net/2078.5/114518